I think Biden wins by an even larger margin than 2020. Trump is more disliked than ever and these criminal trials aren't going to help.
Republicans should have told him to fuck off and supported someone better.
I actually think the opposite. Biden will win but by a smaller electoral margin than 2020. This is a seriously rare event in Presidential history. An incumbent has always won more electoral votes than when he got in since FDR (who declined each time he got a new term). The only one to break this trend? Obama, who got elected with 365 votes then reelected with only 332.
Biden then needs to be compared to other Democratic Presidents. Carter was one term. Clinton won overwhelmingly in his reelection, and as just described Obama won, but by less. Now Biden is sure as fuck no Clinton and he’s somewhere between Carter and Obama in perception.
Ok ok, so now we have to do my strong suite…MATH. Biden was able to win 2020 by flipping key “swing” states that Trump had won in 2016: MI, WI, PA, NV, AZ, and GA. Of these states the ones he’s most likely to lose are Arizona and Georgia, considering they lean more Republican anyway and only went to Biden by a margin of less than 1%.
However that still leaves Biden to win MI, WI, PA, and NV. All lean heavily Democrat and have for the last 20 years, only bucking this trend to elect Trump in 2016. And in the scenario he wins with these states, Biden eeks out a 276 victory, 270 if we don’t count Nevada.