- Forum Clout
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Over on The Org, there was a running bit, that a dude kept telling people to learn how to install rain gutters for a living.
Seemed like a joke, but he turned out to be right.
Basically, the Internet has been telling people to "learn to code" for the last five years at least. At this point it's a meme: Did you just lose your job at WalMart? Learn to code.
But something funny happened along the way. Basically, companies overhired like crazy during the pandemic. For instance, I have two full time jobs at the same time, and at one point I had four. Because they were handing out jobs like candy for a while there, job openings for software developers have now fallen by over sixteen percent. That doesn't sound like a lot, but it's also combined with thousands of layoffs. So you have newly laid off people fighting for roles with people who just graduated college. Your basic shit show. Things haven't been like this since the Dot Com Bubble popped.
At the same time, something else happened: basically, there are barely any homes for sale. What happened was that interest rates crashed during the pandemic, almost everyone refinanced their mortgage down to three percent, and now they have "golden handcuffs." There are millions of people who can't afford to move and are stuck in their homes, because if they were to do that, their new mortgage payment would be twice as high. Mortgage rates are 7.5% today, they were 2.5-3.0% just two years ago.
This has created a crazy demand for construction workers. If homeowners won't move, homebuilders will just build new homes. And they are.
Bottom line: it's arguably easier to get a job swinging a hammer today, than it is to get a job doing software development.
Seemed like a joke, but he turned out to be right.
Basically, the Internet has been telling people to "learn to code" for the last five years at least. At this point it's a meme: Did you just lose your job at WalMart? Learn to code.
But something funny happened along the way. Basically, companies overhired like crazy during the pandemic. For instance, I have two full time jobs at the same time, and at one point I had four. Because they were handing out jobs like candy for a while there, job openings for software developers have now fallen by over sixteen percent. That doesn't sound like a lot, but it's also combined with thousands of layoffs. So you have newly laid off people fighting for roles with people who just graduated college. Your basic shit show. Things haven't been like this since the Dot Com Bubble popped.
At the same time, something else happened: basically, there are barely any homes for sale. What happened was that interest rates crashed during the pandemic, almost everyone refinanced their mortgage down to three percent, and now they have "golden handcuffs." There are millions of people who can't afford to move and are stuck in their homes, because if they were to do that, their new mortgage payment would be twice as high. Mortgage rates are 7.5% today, they were 2.5-3.0% just two years ago.
This has created a crazy demand for construction workers. If homeowners won't move, homebuilders will just build new homes. And they are.
Bottom line: it's arguably easier to get a job swinging a hammer today, than it is to get a job doing software development.
ZeroHedge
ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
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